Electability map

How likely each candidate is to be nominated, against how likely they are to win if they are. Candidates high and to the left are long shots for the nomination who are still priced as strong nominees.

DemocratsAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the likeliest nominee at 16%. James Talarico has a higher estimate if nominated, 87% to Ocasio-Cortez’s 81%, but their price ranges overlap.

RepublicansJ.D. Vance is the likeliest nominee at 44%, but Marco Rubio is stronger if nominated: 60% to Vance’s 46%.

DemocratRepublicanCurves join equal chances of winning the presidencyUnder 2% to be nominated, not rankedParty average: the ranked candidates, weighted by their chances of nomination

Polymarket prices, Oct 20, 8:17 PM ET. 83 more Polymarket candidates have no ranked estimate, 14 of them under 2% to be nominated. See the full field