Who can win the presidency if nominated?
Oval Odds estimates each 2028 candidate’s chance of winning the presidency as their party’s nominee. It divides their market odds of winning the White House by their odds of winning the nomination.
Most electable in each party
Polymarket prices- Win presidency
- 13.2%
- Win nomination
- ÷16.2%
- Win presidency
- 8.5%
- Win nomination
- ÷14.9%
What changed
Recorded since , so this covers less than 24 hours.
Biggest moves
Smaller changes, or ones within half a candidate’s bid–ask range, aren’t listed.
Ranked by electability
Candidates with at least a 2% chance of winning the nomination and reliable prices on both markets. Select anyone to see the math.
Win presidency ÷ win nomination = win if nominated
The mark on each bar is 50%. Past it, a candidate is favored to win if nominated.
Explore the field
Electability map
Every ranked candidate placed by their chance of being nominated and their chance of winning if they are. It shows at a glance where the nomination favorites and the highest estimates if nominated part ways.
Open the map
Compare candidates
Put up to four candidates side by side: nomination odds, presidency odds, the index, price ranges and how each has moved. A comparison, not head-to-head odds.
Compare candidatesPreviews use Polymarket prices.
How to read the index
The calculation
Chance of winning the presidency divided by chance of winning the nomination, both from the same market.
The prices
Each price is the midpoint of the best bid and ask, recorded every hour, so a stale last trade can’t skew it.
The checks
Candidates need a 2% chance of nomination, tight spreads and real orders on both markets to be ranked.
The limits
Markets can be thin, biased or wrong. Each figure is a separate scenario, so they don’t add up to 100%.