Electability map
How likely each candidate is to be nominated, against how likely they are to win if they are. Candidates high and to the left are long shots for the nomination who are still priced as strong nominees.
DemocratsAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads on both counts: the likeliest nominee at 16% and the highest estimate if nominated, 80%.
RepublicansJ.D. Vance is the likeliest nominee at 44%, but Marco Rubio is stronger if nominated: 60% to Vance’s 46%.
Polymarket prices, . 240 more Polymarket candidates have no ranked estimate, 14 of them under 2% to be nominated. See the full field