Democrat
80.3%
Chance of winning if nominated
Compare candidates
See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.
A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.
- Democrat57.1%
Chance of winning if nominated
Side by side
Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices.
Over time
Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.
All the numbers
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Gavin Newsom | |
|---|---|---|
| Win if nominatedThe index | 80.3% | 57.1% |
| Range from bid and ask | 79.3% to 81.4% | 56.6% to 57.6% |
| Win nomination | 16.3%Bid 16.1%, ask 16.4% | 15.8%Bid 15.8%, ask 15.9% |
| Win presidency | 13.1%Bid 13.0%, ask 13.1% | 9.0%Bid 9.0%, ask 9.1% |
| Electability rank | 1st of 9 ranked Democrats | 6th of 9 ranked Democrats |
| Nomination rank | Front-runner | 2nd among Democrats |
| Change, past dayIn the index | … | … |
| Change, past weekIn the index | … | … |
| Status | Ranked | Ranked |
| Markets | Nomination market for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Polymarket, opens in a new tabPresidency market for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Polymarket, opens in a new tab | Nomination market for Gavin Newsom on Polymarket, opens in a new tabPresidency market for Gavin Newsom on Polymarket, opens in a new tab |
Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated