Prices updated 7:15 PM ET

Compare candidates

See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.

A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.

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  1. Republican
    50.8%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    2nd of 3 ranked Republicans

  2. Republican
    45.8%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    3rd of 3 ranked Republicans

Side by side

Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices; the tick marks their party’s average.

Chance of winning if nominated

Chance of winning the nomination

Chance of winning the presidency

Over time

Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.

All the numbers

Tucker CarlsonJ.D. Vance
Win if nominatedThe index50.8%45.8%
vs. party averageIn points+1.4Republican average 49.4%−3.6Republican average 49.4%
Range from bid and ask48.4% to 53.3%45.7% to 46.0%
Win nomination3.0%Bid 3.0%, ask 3.1%43.8%Bid 43.7%, ask 43.8%
Win presidency1.6%Bid 1.5%, ask 1.6%20.1%Bid 20.0%, ask 20.1%
Electability rank2nd of 3 ranked Republicans3rd of 3 ranked Republicans
Nomination rank3rd among RepublicansFront-runner
Change, past dayIn the index……
Change, past weekIn the index……
StatusRankedRanked
MarketsFull pageNominationPresidencyFull pageNominationPresidency

Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated