J.D. Vance
Chance of winning the presidency if nominated
As the nominee, wins about 46 races in 100.
3.6 points below the Republican average of 49.4%
- Win nomination
- 43.8% Front-runner
- Win presidency
- 20.1% Bid 20.0%, ask 20.1%
- Range from bid and ask
- 45.7–46.0% Price uncertainty if nominated
- Republican average
- 49.4% Vance: −3.6 points
Over time
How it’s calculated
The presidency price already includes the chance of losing the nomination. Dividing by the nomination price removes it.
20.1%÷43.8%=45.8%
Using bid and ask prices instead of midpoints, the index ranges from 45.7% to 46.0%. That’s price uncertainty, not a statistical margin of error.
Calculated from unrounded prices. Assumes winning the presidency requires winning this party’s nomination.
Market prices
Each contract pays $1 if it comes true, so its price reads as a probability: 43.8¢ means 43.8%. The index uses the midpoint between the best bid and ask.
| Market | Bid | Ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins the nomination Open on Polymarket | 43.7% | 43.8% | 43.8% |
| Wins the presidency Open on Polymarket | 20.0% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
Observed . Trading fees are not deducted.
Market rules
Nomination market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Presidency market
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
What this number can’t tell you
It isn’t a head-to-head poll. Each figure describes a different future, in which the opponent, the economy and the campaign may all differ. A higher number doesn’t prove that nominating this candidate would raise the party’s chances by the same amount. Independent runs, party switches, replacement nominees and plain market error can all break the calculation.