Prices updated 7:15 PM ET

Compare candidates

See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.

A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.

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  1. Republican
    45.8%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    3rd of 3 ranked Republicans

  2. Republican
    59.7%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    1st of 3 ranked Republicans

Side by side

Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices; the tick marks their party’s average.

Chance of winning if nominated

Chance of winning the nomination

Chance of winning the presidency

Over time

Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.

All the numbers

J.D. VanceMarco Rubio
Win if nominatedThe index45.8%59.7%
vs. party averageIn points−3.6Republican average 49.4%+10.3Republican average 49.4%
Range from bid and ask45.7% to 46.0%58.5% to 61.0%
Win nomination43.8%Bid 43.7%, ask 43.8%14.6%Bid 14.6%, ask 14.7%
Win presidency20.1%Bid 20.0%, ask 20.1%8.8%Bid 8.6%, ask 8.9%
Electability rank3rd of 3 ranked Republicans1st of 3 ranked Republicans
Nomination rankFront-runner2nd among Republicans
Change, past dayIn the index……
Change, past weekIn the index……
StatusRankedRanked
MarketsFull pageNominationPresidencyFull pageNominationPresidency

Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated