Republican
–
Not ranked: under 2% to be nominated
Compare candidates
See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.
A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.
- Republican45.8%
Chance of winning if nominated
Side by side
Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices; the tick marks their party’s average.
Over time
Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.
All the numbers
| Donald Trump Jr. | J.D. Vance | |
|---|---|---|
| Win if nominatedThe index | Not ranked | 45.8% |
| vs. party averageIn points | – | −3.7Republican average 49.6% |
| Range from bid and ask | – | 45.7% to 46.0% |
| Win nomination | 1.7%Bid 1.6%, ask 1.7% | 43.8%Bid 43.7%, ask 43.8% |
| Win presidency | 0.5%Bid 0.5%, ask 0.6% | 20.1%Bid 20.0%, ask 20.1% |
| Electability rank | – | 3rd of 3 ranked Republicans |
| Nomination rank | 7th among Republicans | Front-runner |
| Change, past dayIn the index | … | … |
| Change, past weekIn the index | … | … |
| Status | Under 2% to be nominated | Ranked |
| Markets | Full page for Donald Trump Jr.Nomination market for Donald Trump Jr. on Polymarket, opens in a new tabPresidency market for Donald Trump Jr. on Polymarket, opens in a new tab | Full page for J.D. VanceNomination market for J.D. Vance on Polymarket, opens in a new tabPresidency market for J.D. Vance on Polymarket, opens in a new tab |
Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated