Democrat
–
Not ranked: under 2% to be nominated
Compare candidates
See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.
A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.
- Democrat80.8%
Chance of winning if nominated
Side by side
Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices; the tick marks their party’s average.
Over time
Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.
All the numbers
| Raphael Warnock | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win if nominatedThe index | Not ranked | 80.8% |
| vs. party averageIn points | – | +16.8Democratic average 64.0% |
| Range from bid and ask | – | 80.0% to 81.6% |
| Win nomination | 1.9%Bid 1.9%, ask 2.0% | 16.4%Bid 16.3%, ask 16.5% |
| Win presidency | 1.0%Bid 1.0%, ask 1.1% | 13.3%Bid 13.2%, ask 13.3% |
| Electability rank | – | 1st of 8 ranked Democrats |
| Nomination rank | 11th among Democrats | Front-runner |
| Change, past dayIn the index | … | … |
| Change, past weekIn the index | … | … |
| Status | Under 2% to be nominated | Ranked |
| Markets | Full page for Raphael WarnockNomination market for Raphael Warnock on Polymarket, opens in a new tabPresidency market for Raphael Warnock on Polymarket, opens in a new tab | Full page for Alexandria Ocasio-CortezNomination market for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Polymarket, opens in a new tabPresidency market for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Polymarket, opens in a new tab |
Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated