Prices updated 7:15 PM ET

Compare candidates

See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.

A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.

Try
  1. Democrat
    55.6%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    7th of 8 ranked Democrats

  2. Democrat
    80.8%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    1st of 8 ranked Democrats

Side by side

Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices; the tick marks their party’s average.

Chance of winning if nominated

Chance of winning the nomination

Chance of winning the presidency

Over time

Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.

All the numbers

Pete ButtigiegAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Win if nominatedThe index55.6%80.8%
vs. party averageIn points−8.5Democratic average 64.0%+16.8Democratic average 64.0%
Range from bid and ask54.0% to 57.1%80.0% to 81.6%
Win nomination5.0%Bid 4.9%, ask 5.0%16.4%Bid 16.3%, ask 16.5%
Win presidency2.8%Bid 2.7%, ask 2.8%13.3%Bid 13.2%, ask 13.3%
Electability rank7th of 8 ranked Democrats1st of 8 ranked Democrats
Nomination rank6th among DemocratsFront-runner
Change, past dayIn the index……
Change, past weekIn the index……
StatusRankedRanked
MarketsFull pageNominationPresidencyFull pageNominationPresidency

Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated