Prices updated 7:15 PM ET

Compare candidates

See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.

A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.

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  1. Democrat
    53.2%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    8th of 8 ranked Democrats

  2. Democrat
    80.8%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    1st of 8 ranked Democrats

Side by side

Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices; the tick marks their party’s average.

Chance of winning if nominated

Chance of winning the nomination

Chance of winning the presidency

Over time

Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.

All the numbers

Josh ShapiroAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Win if nominatedThe index53.2%80.8%
vs. party averageIn points−10.9Democratic average 64.0%+16.8Democratic average 64.0%
Range from bid and ask51.8% to 54.5%80.0% to 81.6%
Win nomination5.5%Bid 5.5%, ask 5.6%16.4%Bid 16.3%, ask 16.5%
Win presidency2.9%Bid 2.9%, ask 3.0%13.3%Bid 13.2%, ask 13.3%
Electability rank8th of 8 ranked Democrats1st of 8 ranked Democrats
Nomination rank5th among DemocratsFront-runner
Change, past dayIn the index……
Change, past weekIn the index……
StatusRankedRanked
MarketsFull pageNominationPresidencyFull pageNominationPresidency

Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated