Prices updated 8:17 PM ET

Compare candidates

See up to four candidates side by side: how likely each is to be nominated, to win the presidency, and to win it if nominated.

A comparison, not a matchup. Each figure is a candidate’s own chance, from their own market prices, not their chance against anyone else on this page. Nothing here says who would win if two of them faced each other.

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  1. Democrat
    80.8%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    2nd of 10 ranked Democrats

  2. Democrat
    56.8%

    Chance of winning if nominated

    7th of 10 ranked Democrats

Side by side

Each bar is that candidate’s own chance, starting at zero. The pale band around a bar’s end spans the range between bid and ask prices; the tick marks their party’s average.

Chance of winning if nominated

Chance of winning the nomination

Chance of winning the presidency

Over time

Hourly midpoint prices. Each line is a candidate’s own chance if nominated, not their odds against the others. Gaps mean the candidate wasn’t ranked at the time or no price was recorded.

All the numbers

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezGavin Newsom
Win if nominatedThe index80.8%56.8%
vs. party averageIn points+16.5Democratic average 64.3%−7.5Democratic average 64.3%
Range from bid and ask80.0% to 81.6%56.0% to 57.6%
Win nomination16.4%Bid 16.3%, ask 16.5%15.8%Bid 15.8%, ask 15.9%
Win presidency13.3%Bid 13.2%, ask 13.3%9.0%Bid 8.9%, ask 9.1%
Electability rank2nd of 10 ranked Democrats7th of 10 ranked Democrats
Nomination rankFront-runner2nd among Democrats
Change, past dayIn the index……
Change, past weekIn the index……
StatusRankedRanked
MarketsFull pageNominationPresidencyFull pageNominationPresidency

Polymarket prices, . Each market is calculated on its own, and prices from the two are never mixed. How the index is calculated